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4. Future Directions

Looking ahead, Offtake Agreements will continue to evolve along several dimensions:

  • Integration with compliance markets: As governments adopt CDR targets, Offtake Agreements may become eligible for compliance purposes, increasing their importance.
  • Financial innovation: Instruments like securitization of Offtake Agreements, CDR credit insurance, and project bonds could bring new capital into the market.
  • Methodological convergence: As protocols mature, Offtake Agreements may reference fewer, more standardized methodologies, simplifying negotiation.
  • Global expansion: While many Offtake Agreements are currently centered in North America and Europe, projects in Latin America, Africa, and Asia are emerging. Offtake Agreements will need to adapt to diverse legal and regulatory contexts.

Market Convergence​

The trajectory of the CDR market points toward convergence—both of standards and methodologies, and of voluntary and compliance markets. At the same time, interoperability of registries is set to become a defining feature of the next phase of market development.

Offtake Agreements will need to anticipate this evolving "parallel world" of overlapping frameworks. The challenge is to future-proof contracts, providing flexibility to adapt to changing regimes, without introducing undue legal complexity that hampers deal-making.

Worked Examples​

One way forward may be to illustrate the issues with worked examples, contrasting different CDR methods. For example:

  • A contract for biochar might have different considerations than one for direct air capture
  • Compliance markets with limited CDR access, such as Japan's emissions trading scheme, may offer useful test cases for understanding how contracts can be structured in anticipation of limited, conditional, or evolving recognition of CDR credits